Quantum Winter or Quantum Pause In The Aftermath of Worst Crash in Quantum Computing Stocks
We look at the aftermath of the collapse in share prices of major quantum companies. This occurred in the wake of comments from Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, about quantum computing. December 2024 saw an epic run-up in the valuation of pure-play quantum stocks, which have now corrected significantly. Whether this remains that we are in quantum winter, as AI has undergone several times, only history will tell.
We examine rebuttals and comments from industry experts. We also include insights from academics. These individuals work in the disruptive field of quantum computing.
Quantum Winter vs. AI Winter?
One of the challenges with any emerging or disruptive technology is prediction. Many in the artificial intelligence space did not see the rise of ChatGPT, but its emergence cemented LLMs as a truly frontier technology. This technology is set to impact almost every industry.
But could Jensen's comments cause a wave of divestment in a disruptive field just when it had arrived on the investor scene, starving those early quantum pioneers of much-needed capital? Could we all be caught off guard? Many in the industry were surprised by the sheer speed of progress of large language models. Will investors fear missing out on a potential breakthrough in making quantum computers useful? This situation mirrors what we saw with ChatGPT and its explosive growth.
D-Wave Systems
D-Wave Systems is a Canadian quantum computing firm headquartered in Burnaby, British Columbia. The company holds a unique place in the quantum technology ecosystem. As the first company to commercialize quantum computing hardware, D-Wave has consistently positioned itself at the cutting edge of innovation. D-Wave has focused on quantum annealing unlike its competitors, which pursue gate-based quantum computing for universal problem-solving.
This is a specialized approach tailored for optimization problems. It addresses other computational challenges requiring rapid, near-optimal solutions. quantum annealing—a specialized approach tailored for optimization problems and other computational challenges requiring rapid, near-optimal solutions.
Dr. Baratz clarified that there are different types of quantum computing solutions, some maturing faster than others. D-Wave’s powerful annealing quantum computing solutions are available today and are solving real-world problems for businesses, researchers, and governments.
“There are different approaches to quantum: annealing and gate are the two primary approaches. And while his [Huang’s] comments may not be totally off base for gate model quantum computers, they are 100% off base for annealing quantum computers. When it comes to D-Wave annealing quantum computing, he is dead wrong. We are not 30 years out, we're not 20 years out, we're not 15 years out. We are today. We are supporting businesses today with quantum compute to solve their hard problems,” said Dr. Baratz during the interview.
D-Wave believes that annealing quantum computing is emerging as the critical accelerant to commercial adoption of quantum computing. The technology is uniquely suited for optimization problems, which are widespread throughout the modern enterprise. D-Wave is working with organizations across industries to tackle computationally complex optimization problems, from workforce scheduling, production scheduling, logistics routing, resource optimization and more. Nearly every industry could benefit from annealing quantum computing technology.
CNBC’s “The Exchange” focuses on in-depth reporting around the most important and interesting stories to today’s markets and investors. A replay of the interview with Dr. Baratz can be viewed here.
Official Statement from Dr. Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave:
“Jensen Huang has a misunderstanding of quantum. While he might be right about other quantum companies, he is dead wrong about D-Wave. There is more than one approach to building a quantum computer. D-Wave took a different approach, which has allowed us to become commercial today and likely many years ahead of other quantum computing companies.
Today, more than 100 organizations are using D-Wave’s quantum technologies on-premise and on-cloud to fuel operations and realize business value. D-Wave is working with organizations across industries to tackle complex enterprise challenges from workforce scheduling and logistics routing, to resource optimization and more with our quantum computing solutions.
Jensen Huang’s comments are just the latest in a string of misinformation on quantum computing unfortunately driving market reaction. It’s important for this dialogue to happen in the open, so that the general public understands what’s real and what’s hype in quantum computing.
There is massive potential for AI and quantum to work together in advancing the limitations of today’s classical computing capabilities. We welcome the opportunity to partner with companies like NVIDIA in exploring what’s possible when QPUs and GPUs come together.”
Pasqal Quantum Computing
At Pasqal, we are proud to lead the charge in advancing quantum computing with real-world impact. Today, we’re sharing insights from Georges-Olivier REYMOND, Co-CEO and Co-founder, and Loïc Henriet, Co-CEO, as they address the predictions from NVIDIA's CEO around 'useful quantum computers'.
At Pasqal, we appreciate Jensen Huang’s remarks on the timeline for fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). As he rightly acknowledges, FTQC remains an area of intense academic exploration and is still far from practical applications, however we remain more optimistic about the short-term potential of quantum computing
Firstly, the predictions concern the very last generation of general-purpose fully fault tolerant quantum computers, while our latest advancements make us believe that we will be able to deliver value on specific use cases much sooner.
Secondly, during the next ten years new applications will emerge as error correction techniques improve. At Pasqal, we have an ambitious roadmap toward early fault-tolerant quantum computing addressing quantum error correction, partnering with renowned organizations to advance hardware design and refine algorithms.
Equally important is that we’re seeing tangible results already today with a complementary approach to fault tolerant digital quantum computing, analog quantum computing, that holds immense promise for achieving quantum advantage well before the readiness of FTQC. We foresee analog quantum computing demonstrate quantum advantage within the next two years in multiple industrial use cases.
We have already achieved promising results in quantum simulation use cases, such as modelling magnetic and electronic materials (get more information here), which have the potential to revolutionize the development of superior data and energy storage materials, for example.
Jensen Huang’s statements are a signal that the quantum community needs to do a better job at communicating our ambitions and results, honestly and fairly. The market needs now a more pragmatic approach. At Pasqal we bet on the transformative potential of analog quantum computing, as a working technology today, whilst recognizing the importance of continued investment in quantum computing R&D and FTQC.
It is vital for both public and private institutions to support these efforts, as this will scale up industrial and scientific progress and ensure quantum computing delivers meaningful value well before the end of the decade.
Scott Aaronson
Scott Aaronson is a prominent computer scientist and theoretical physicist, known for his groundbreaking work in quantum computing and computational complexity theory. He currently serves as the David J. Bruton Jr. Centennial Professor of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin, where he leads the Quantum Information Center.
Aaronson is widely regarded for his ability to bridge the often esoteric world of quantum mechanics with computational theory, offering insights that are both rigorous and accessible.
Scott also goes on to say: "Google has now demonstrated fault-tolerance that becomes more and more of a win with increasing code size. So no, I can’t confidently rule out commercially useful quantum simulations within the next decade. Like, it sounds fanciful, but then I remember how fanciful it would’ve seemed in 2012 that we’d have conversational AI by 2022".
Fact or Fiction?
It's hard to separate fact from fiction in a frenzy of noise. Many will be looking at the quantum computing sector for the first time. However, we know some fundamentals about quantum computing and quantum technology.
The world is quantum. We live in a quantum universe and are ultimately governed by quantum effects.
To properly understand, we need quantum computation to truly simulate systems which are simply untenable by classical computers.
Quantum Technologies are already finding uses in security, such as QKD (Quantum Key Distribution). Whilst this doesn't fall under the umbrella of quantum computing, it is a well-proven use case.