Quantum Predictions for 2025
Quantum Thought Leaders Weigh in What The Future Holds
The new year is almost upon us. As we close out 2024, we've seen incredible breakthroughs and headlines in the quantum space. Everything from the rise of logical qubits to claims that Chinese researchers have cracked encryption with a quantum computer. But before the year closes, we share insights about what 2025 will bring to the quantum space. These insights come from some of the brightest minds in quantum and quantum computing.
A Quick Look Back at 2024 in Quantum shows certain common themes. One theme is the rise of Logical Qubits, and another is the death of NISQ. Logical qubits are fault-tolerant quantum information units constructed using multiple physical qubits. They are designed to encode and protect quantum information against errors caused by noise, decoherence, or imperfections in hardware. Logical qubits are a fundamental building block for scaling quantum computers and achieving reliable, long-term quantum computations.
We've also seen Quantum Computing catch investors' attention. D-wave, Rigetti, and IonQ are publicly listed quantum companies that have gained considerable interest. This has led to sizable share price rises after they languished following their first stock market debut. We see the beginning of retail investors becoming interested in quantum after the meteoric rise of AI.
There have been aplenty of roadmaps—almost too many to mention. IQM, Alice & Bob, Rigetti, Quantinuum, D-Wave, IonQ, Riverlane, Pasqal, Infleqtion, and QuEra have updated their roadmaps. Qubit counts are increasing, and quantum computer systems are showing higher fidelity.
Chene Tradonsky, CTO and Co-Founder of LightSolver
Dr. Chene Tradonsky is the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) and co-founder of LightSolver, a company specializing in quantum-inspired computing solutions. He earned his Ph.D. in physics from the Weizmann Institute of Science, focusing on optics and lasers. His expertise in these areas has been instrumental in developing LightSolver's all-optical computing platform, which leverages laser technology to solve complex optimization problems efficiently.
IQM Quantum Computers Co-CEO and Co-founder Jan Goetz's prediction for 2025
Dr. Jan Goetz is a quantum physicist and the co-founder and Co-Chief Executive Officer (Co-CEO) of IQM Quantum Computers, a company specializing in the development of next-generation quantum computing solutions. IQM focuses on building quantum computers for high-performance computing centers, academic institutions, and industrial applications.
The combination of artificial intelligence and quantum computing is expected to accelerate in 2025. Hybrid quantum-AI systems will impact fields like optimization, drug discovery, and climate modeling, while AI-assisted quantum error mitigation will significantly enhance the reliability and scalability of quantum technologies.
In addition, we expect that progress in quantum error correction will mark a pivotal moment, with scalable error-correcting codes reducing overhead for fault-tolerant quantum computing and the first logical qubits surpassing physical qubits in error rates. Complementing these advancements, innovations in hardware will improve coherence times and qubit connectivity, strengthening the foundation for robust quantum systems.
Algorithmic development will take centre stage, with novel algorithms developed in finance, logistics, and chemistry. AI-driven discoveries will streamline quantum algorithm design, and enhanced algorithms will go beyond the well-known Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) and Quantum Approximate Optimisation Algorithm (QAOA) approaches to unlock new possibilities in materials science and chemistry.
The quantum ecosystem will mature further as AI and quantum firms merge or collaborate, driving faster commercialization and adoption. Quantum platforms will emerge, seamlessly integrating classical, AI, and quantum resources.
These achievements will move quantum computing closer to practical utility, reshaping industries reliant on computational power. The convergence of quantum computing and AI will solve previously intractable problems, fostering a new era of innovation.
Dr. Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave
Dr. Alan Baratz is the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of D-Wave Quantum Inc., a leading company in the field of quantum computing. He took on the CEO role in 2020. Before this, he served as Executive Vice President of Research and Development. He was also the Chief Product Officer at D-Wave. In these capacities, he was instrumental in overseeing the development, delivery, and support of the company's products, technologies, and applications.
Quantum Optimization
Quantum optimization will emerge as the killer use case for quantum computing, becoming an operational necessity for businesses looking for novel strategies to maintain competitiveness. Enterprises leveraging annealing quantum computing to conquer complex optimization challenges can expect to outpace rivals that remain stuck using outdated legacy solutions. In addition, the rise in annealing quantum computing adoption in 2025 will result in an unprecedented number of real-world applications moving into production, marking the transition from quantum hype to commercial reality.
Quantum Infrastructure
We will see a surge in interest and investment in on-premises quantum computing systems in high-performance computing (HPC) environments worldwide as researchers, academic institutions, and businesses look to bolster national security and accelerate competitive differentiation. By bringing together annealing quantum computing with HPC, we will witness remarkable progress in leveraging hybrid-quantum technologies to fuel new discoveries and achieve previously unattainable business outcomes.
Quantum and AI
As AI adoption accelerates, organizations face mounting computational demands while subject to energy constraints. In 2025, quantum computing will emerge as a crucial tool for addressing these challenges. Big Tech's embrace of alternative energy sources like nuclear power to keep pace with AI's escalating power consumption highlights the urgency of finding more efficient computing solutions. Quantum technologies offer a path forward. Organizations that harness quantum computing to enhance AI efficiency and transform model design could achieve breakthrough performance gains while reducing energy consumption.
Quantum Research
With advancements in quantum hardware resulting in new levels of system performance, the world's leading researchers will increasingly embrace quantum technology to achieve groundbreaking scientific breakthroughs and new discoveries out of the reach of classical computers. Areas like AI/ML, industrial optimization and materials simulation stand to benefit greatly from the continued product development progress and increasingly powerful performance of quantum systems.
Gate Model vs. Annealing Quantum Computing Resolution
The industry will finally put to rest the academic debate between gate-model and annealing quantum computing, recognizing that both technologies will be essential for different computational needs. Annealing quantum computing will maintain its advantage with optimization problems, while gate-model systems will excel in their own specialized domains once they mature enough for production use. Noting that gate-model systems are still 7-15 years away from being able to handle production workloads, only annealing systems are capable of managing production-level applications in 2025, making them the sole viable focus for commercial applications.
Rise in Quantum Career Opportunities
Just as ChatGPT gave rise to Prompt Engineers, we will see new kinds of quantum-focused jobs emerge. Given the commercial maturity of quantum optimization, surging demand for a new type of talent — Quantum Optimization Engineers — will be prevalent in 2025. These specialists can translate complex real-world problems into formats compatible with annealing quantum computing systems. This represents a new and distinct professional discipline within the quantum computing field.
Quantum-Enabled Decision Making
As recognition grows for quantum optimization's ability to handle production-grade applications, interest in quantum will shift solely from innovation teams to operational optimization, data analytics and intelligence teams, which are tasked with enhancing enterprise decision-making processes. This transition further marks quantum computing's evolution from an experimental technology to a practical business tool.
Quantum Policy
2025 will mark a pivotal shift in quantum policy strategies across the world that will inject new momentum into the commercialization of quantum technologies. Expect to see:
More government programs focused on building near-term and pilot quantum applications to optimize areas such as drug discovery, emergency response, manufacturing operations, and sustainability.
Countries and regions already using case identification (e.g., Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union) explore the commercialization of quantum technologies by funding demos and pilot programs.
An increase in the identification of public-sector challenges that quantum applications, such as emergency response, supply chain issues, and national security, can address. There will also be a willingness to deploy all quantum computing technologies, including annealing and quantum hybrids.
A new focus on commercialization and developing and adopting near-term applications in the U.S. During his first term, President-elect Trump led the first comprehensive U.S. quantum program (the National Quantum Initiative) in his new administration, he surrounds himself with leaders who support advancing emerging tech and quantum to solve real-world problems. Modernizing U.S. quantum programs will reflect the industry's advancements over the last four years.
Jesse Todd, CEO of EncompaaS
Quantum Zeitgeist predictions for 2025
There has been increased retail investor interest in quantum computing and quantum technologies. Google's Willow Chip Lit the Blue Touch Paper of Progress and attracted widespread media coverage and interest. Retail investors are experiencing a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) moment. Their fear of missing out on a multi-decade trend drives them to consider quantum an investable sector. This comes as there have been many false dawns.
Continued roll-out of ever more qubits. We don't see this stalling anytime soon. The number of qubits will increase for any metrics used to describe quantum, whether qubit count or quantum volume. More qubits connected with higher fidelity are expected. Still qubit count is driving headlines.
Logical qubits become the norm. Fault-tolerant computing will become more common. We are moving away from NISQ. We will get used to higher fidelity qubits. Logical qubits will become a metric of note. These qubits will function outside of the noisy regime.
Defense applications and spending on quantum will increase. At the tail end of 2024, increased security threats caused by unknown drones over New York could ignite defense spending. With Trump's new presidency in the second term, we expect to see inflows into quantum applications.
Qiskit continues to dominate the landscape. IBM's open-source quantum framework is not the only language/framework for programming a quantum computer, but it remains the steadfast favorite. It also has a blossoming ecosystem. We don't see anything to supplant this currently.
Microsoft ups its game. We think it's lagging behind big tech in quantum. It's not getting visibility or traction about ecosystems or programming languages. Its Q# is a very accomplished quantum programming language. However, it is not doing as well as the Python-based Quantum framework Qiskit concerning uptake. This is unfortunate. Many developers have gotten used to Microsoft tooling, like VS Code and Microsoft Azure, for cloud applications.
We now give Microsoft a "B—" school grade, and we think it's time for it to improve. In late 2024, MS noticed an interest in quantum computing. It could channel this intense technological development into its Azure platform. I am not saying that MS is not innovative; we just want to see a complete service. IDE, Language, and Cloud are all MS components.
A 2025 quantum company acquisition is not outlandish. Imagine a tie-up with a quantum hardware company...would this fit into MS's portfolio? We think so. Its dead-end push for topological hardware hasn't yielded any working machines. We know the board and investors will be clamoring for something to show. In 2024, Microsoft and Atom Computing reached new heights. They achieved quantum entanglement on 24 logical qubits. Could this be a natural partner?
We think Microsoft is lagging behind Google. In December 2024, Google surprised us all with its Willow Chip. The search giant is now refocusing on Quantum. Will Microsoft be watching, and will it copy?