After the Quantum Stock Apocolypse, Reasons Why Quantum (probably) Isn't Over Just Yet
The road to quantum maturity may be rocky. Public perception may waver. However, history suggests that pioneering technologies often emerge stronger after early stumbles. Here’s why quantum computing is far from over even in the shadow of exaggerated apocalyptic scenarios. This is not investment advice.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang recently expressed skepticism about the near-term practicality of quantum computing, suggesting that truly useful quantum computers may be 15 to 30 years away. These remarks have sparked significant tech community debate and had notable financial repercussions including "tanking" the publicly listed quantum computing stocks.
Quantum Mechanics Is Fundamental
Quantum isn't a theory—it's reality. The world operates on the principles of quantum mechanics. We must exploit quantum effects like superposition and entanglement to fully realize our universe. Already, many are exploring the benefits of better security by using QKD to secure communications. But returning to QC, its foundations are sound, built on strong foundations. The math works, and the physics works. Quantum technology is one of the most rigorous fields. It's not some "woo woo" branding for another scam product.
Quantum theory is the most successful scientific theory ever devised. It underlies our understanding of atoms, molecules, light, and much of modern technology (lasers, transistors, etc.). Its predictions have been verified with astonishing precision.
Quantum theory uses complex mathematics but is not "just mathematics." It's a fundamental physical theory. It makes testable predictions about the world. These predictions have been confirmed countless times in experiments.
Quantum Computing Is the Next Paradigm of Computing
Quantum is now seen as a magic bullet for every form of computing. However, some applications have real promise. This is especially true in search or optimization. Many well-established quantum algorithms like Shor's Algorithm, Grover's Algorithm, and HHL exist. Others include Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE), Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), and Deutsch-Jozsa Algorithm. Furthermore, there is an ever-growing Quantum Zoo of Algorithms that shows potential promise.
As the repertoire of algorithms expands, researchers find new and novel ways to use quantum algorithms. Granted, quantum computers are not always easy to deploy. They still have relatively few qubits, and there are scaling challenges. However, the fundamentals are already there.
Qubits can exist in a superposition and be entangled, thanks to the marvels of quantum mechanics. Quantum computers can tackle problems far beyond the reach of even the most powerful supercomputers today, and this capability is due to quantum phenomena like entanglement.
Quantum Technologies are Already Being Used
Traditional encryption methods rely on mathematical complexity. In contrast, QKD uses the inherent properties of quantum mechanics. It employs principles such as the superposition and entanglement of photons, which create and distribute encryption keys that are theoretically unbreakable.
Here's how it works: QKD involves sending photons, which are individual particles of light. These photons are sent in specific quantum states between two parties who want to communicate securely. They carry information that can be used to generate a shared secret key. The fundamental laws of quantum mechanics dictate this process.
Any interception or measurement of these photons will change their states. This change alerts the communicating parties to the presence of an eavesdropper, ensuring that only the intended recipients can possess the correct key and decrypt the message, guaranteeing secure communication.
Telecom companies are incorporating QKD into their networks to enhance data transmission security. SK Telecom in South Korea and Telefonica in Spain have conducted successful QKD trials.
It's not just algorithmic speedup that could be the reason quantum technology is used. The outcome could be better quality. Many see the advantages of using higher-dimensional Hilbert spaces, which are evident in hybrid neural networks. This is part of a growing field called QML, or quantum machine learning.
Many companies have been exploring how to use quantum computing in their workflows. Many companies, including VW and Lockheed Martin, were early pioneers. They explored topics such as quantum optimization.
There is also the Halo effect to consider. The halo effect is a cognitive bias where positive impressions in one area influence perceptions in another. In the context of technology, the halo effect of branding can significantly affect perceptions of products, services, and companies. This effect often extends beyond their intrinsic qualities. So, being involved with frontier technologies is helping companies like IBM, Google, and Amazon bring users into their cloud. Being left behind in the Quantum race could mean customers view the company as less technologically advanced in quantum. They might also perceive it as less advanced in other areas.
Cloud-based quantum platforms like IBM Quantum and Amazon Braket allow users to experiment with quantum systems, making the technology more tangible for developers, researchers, and hobbyists.
Research Roadmaps Are Already In-Play
No one denies that we will need to scale seriously for really useful quantum computers. But this is happening. The Gauntlet has already been thrown down. Companies such as PsiQuantum have begun the scaling process. Many other players are steadily increasing the number of qubits. They are also improving quantum volume or whatever performance metric makes sense.
IBM is one of the leaders in openly publishing its quantum computing roadmaps, but it is not the only one. For example, IQM and QuEra are publishing their progress and openly discussing their objectives.
Not So Noisy
The NISQ (noisy intermediate-scale quantum) era, defined by systems with tens to hundreds of qubits, has demonstrated quantum computing's potential. However, these devices are inherently limited by noise, decoherence, and gate fidelity issues, which restrict their ability to solve complex problems reliably.
The rise of logical qubits and the decline of NISQ reflect a broader shift toward more scalable, error-resistant quantum systems that can unlock practical, real-world applications. However, NISQ devices cannot perform deep quantum circuits without significant errors, and scaling NISQ architectures while maintaining coherence is technologically challenging.
Several factors drive the shift from NISQ to logical qubits but, importantly, can scale. Logical qubits allow systems to scale while maintaining reliability, a crucial step for tackling complex computational problems. One company exploring Logical Qubits is QuEra, which leverages neutral atom qubits with high connectivity and scalability potential. This architecture is well-suited for implementing fault-tolerant logical qubits, allowing for precise control and long coherence times. Another is IQM, which is squarely aimed at fault-corrected qubits.
Defense And Security Spending Will Rise
Global defense and security spending is set to increase significantly due to geopolitical tensions, evolving threats, and leadership dynamics. Important factors include the potential impacts of Donald Trump’s second term and broader world security challenges. Below, we explore the key drivers shaping this trend.
Donald Trump’s political rhetoric and policy priorities, centered on “America First,” have historically emphasized strengthening the U.S. military. His second term would likely amplify this focus, prioritizing likely technological applications to enhance security. Prolonged conflict in Eastern Europe has reinvigorated NATO and led European nations to increase their defense budgets. Germany’s historic decision to boost military spending signals a broader trend in Europe toward rearmament. The three letter US intelligence agencies are keen to explore how quantum will impact security.
China will be one of the hot words on the lips of the new president. The Chinese are actively pursuing a quantum policy. Western governments will not want to fall behind in such a crucial technology. The first to break cryptographic schemes such as RSA that we all rely on will open that country to risk. Such risks include attacks in ways that only science fiction can imagine. There are already concerns that nations such as the US trail China.
Breaking Crypto could literally destroy much of the fabric of our lives. Any schema that is not quantum resistant could be at risk. Most encryption today is based on mathematical problems that are infeasible for classical computers to solve in a reasonable timeframe.
RSA, ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography), and Diffie-Hellman are important algorithms that underpin much of our cybersecurity, including online banking, e-commerce, and government communications. However, quantum algorithms, such as Shor's algorithm, are designed to efficiently solve these problems, potentially rendering them obsolete.
Governments and corporations continue to invest billions, and research labs worldwide are pushing the boundaries of possibility. Much like the AI "winters" of the 20th century that preceded today’s boom, quantum computing's potential remains untapped but undoubtedly transformative. That's why we think any talk of a Quantum Winter will be short-lived.
The Rise of AI and Large Language Models Surprised Many
The rapid advancement and widespread adoption of AI, large language models (LLMs), caught many people off guard. Here's why the rise of AI and LLMs surprised so many. Many will want to be involved with quantum. This is especially true. This interest increases if it brings the massive technological advancements we have seen in AI in the last two years. The only way is, so to stay in the field, committed, and invested.
Quantum Computing Is Now A Thing
Since December 2024, it seems like the events of Google's publication of the Willow Chip has had a significant impact. Quantum is now on the map with respect to both quantum computing and quantum computing companies. We simply cannot go back. We cannot unlearn that there is a new paradigm out there. It is being worked on by tech giants and tiny start-ups alike.
The rise of quantum computing is inevitable. Could classical computation be governed by scaling laws similar to Moore's Law?
Interest in quantum computing is already growing, particularly as organizations and governments recognize its transformative potential. However, like AI, quantum computing requires sustained commitment and investment to overcome its limitations. Breakthroughs in quantum error correction will only happen with long-term dedication. Advances in hardware scalability also require the same commitment. Progress in algorithm development also depends on the dedication of researchers, policymakers, and private investors.
Mainstream media outlets increasingly cover quantum breakthroughs. They often highlight the field’s potential to address challenges in cryptography, drug discovery, financial modeling, and climate science. The fascination stems from the profound implications quantum computing has for both business and society.
Stories about companies achieving milestones regularly make headlines. Examples include Google’s quantum supremacy experiment, IBM's quantum roadmap, or QuEra's advances in neutral atom computing. These stories emphasize the accelerating pace of innovation.
This coverage has helped demystify quantum technology for the general public. It has made it a topic of conversation beyond scientific and tech circles.
Quantum has Many Smart People Working In the Field.
Quantum is pushing physics into a renaissance period. It is amazing how far we have come. We moved from just the theoretical foundation of QC. In just a few decades, we developed working machines networked on the quantum cloud. Running a quantum circuit on the quantum cloud is easy. You can do it from the comfort of your lounge. No dilation refrigerator is needed. Just a few years ago, we saw the first workable qubit. In 1995, researchers at NIST used a single beryllium ion held in an electromagnetic trap. They manipulated its energy levels with lasers. This demonstrated fundamental qubit control.
Quantum computing is one of the most intellectually demanding fields in technology today. It attracts some of the brightest minds from around the world. The complexity of quantum mechanics is significant. Additionally, the need to develop entirely new computational paradigms has created a unique ecosystem of researchers, engineers, and entrepreneurs.
Many of these experts come from prestigious academic institutions. Quantum researchers often hold PhDs in quantum physics, theoretical computer science, and related fields. Notable figures in quantum computing, such as IBM's Dr. Dario Gil, Google's Dr. Hartmut Neven, and IonQ’s Dr. Peter Chapman, are recognized globally for their contributions and leadership in the field. Their work is influencing the direction of quantum hardware and algorithms. It is also shaping the future of industries like cryptography, materials science, and artificial intelligence.
In summary, the people working in the field are not "pump-and-dump" crypto kids. Instead, they see the genuine promise of quantum computing, and timeline estimations may differ over the years.